1200Z – 24 May 2012

The Hawaiian Islands spent most of today engulfed in the effects of TUTTc C3. Local weather consisted of gusty trade winds with more widespread showers. As of this writing, PHFO has issued a suite of wind advisories and warnings for the islands and adjacent waters. Sustained gale force winds with higher gusts are expected on the peaks of Maui and the Big Island.

C3 is beginning to lose some of its symmetry as it moves west of the Hawaii, but it is nonetheless still a rather substantial circulation.

In the rest of the EPAC, there are no other TUTT-related systems of note. 02E continues off the west coast of Mexico, and its upper-tropospheric (UT) anticyclone dominates the circulation toward the Americas. GFS forecasts out to TAU 72 suggest that westerlies will prevail over the greater part of the EPAC.

In the WPAC, 03W was upgraded by JTWC to 65kts typhoon intensity during the 1800Z 23 May warning based on a microwave eye feature captured by the 1438Z 23 May TRMM pass.

As of the 0600Z warning, the visible multispectral satellite representation remains impressive, showing obvious UT cirrus outflow to the north ahead of the approaching mid-latitude jet stream.

Although the effect is decreasing with time, outflow in the SE quadrant has been enhanced by the presence of C4.

Thus, continued intensification is forecast, with the peak expect to occur 12-24 hrs at 75kts. Interests in Iwo To (Iwo Jima) should monitor this system closely, with impact from the TC core becoming increasingly likely. Rapid weakening should commence after 24 hrs as 03W accelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies.

In the short term, C1 should continue to drift westward and gradually dissipate over the Philippines. C4 will follow suit with regard to a gradual weakening trend, and it is currently degenerating into an open trough as we speak. However, the TUTT axis will persist east of 160E and amplify in the long term during the TAU 48-72 period, with the GFS suggesting the development of another possible TUTTc by TAU 72 near 15N/165E. This could again be another TC-induced TUTTc case, as the UT anticyclone over 03W amplifies during the recurvature process. It will be interesting to see how this verifies!

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