0230Z – 13 June 2012

TS 05W is the single active TC in the WPAC, with convection on IR imagery clearly wrapping around the LLCC.

Since the last entry, C10 developed as forecast, with C9 gradually opening into a trough near the dateline to the east. C10 appears to be enhancing eastward outflow of 05W, although the subsident W/NW quadrant of the TUTTc is evident east of 147E.

By TAU 48, C10 will approach 05W from the east. This could result in some interesting TC-TUTTc interaction that will bear watching.

Also, by TAU 72, a new shear-induced TUTTc is forecast to rapidly develop near 20N/170E, just south of the STR.

The large, sprawling C8 persists in the EPAC, with the western periphery of the subsident region beginning to infringe upon the Hawaiian Islands.

By TAU 72, C8 is forecast to elongate NNE/SSW. Note that the TUTTc absorption into the mid-latitude westerlies has been delayed in subsequent GFS model runs. This is an interesting finding because forecasters have long referenced the anecdote of TUTTcs lasting longer than forecast by numerical models (e.g., due to the failure to properly represent internal TUTTc radiation balances). This is a curious case that may support that anecdote, so this entry has been marked as a “Special Case” for future reference.

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2 Responses to 0230Z – 13 June 2012

  1. mike fiorino says:

    not sure this is such a case – the elongation is because of a forming
    anticyclonic cell to the NW — check it out in 3 d. also, given that
    the moisture pattern looks close to the imagery, the radiation error
    would be pretty subtle. i’m guessing dynamical scale interaction may be
    the bigger factor, but we’ll have to wait and see and i’m guessing the
    model will do better than forecaster prejudice…

    • Owen Shieh says:

      Yeah, it looks like the STR to the west is continuing to build and crest over the north side of C8 by TAU 72 in the current run (00Z 14 June). This has the effect of re-intensifying C8 and advecting it west over Hawaii.

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