0630Z – 28 July 2012

Over the course of today, the circulation of 93W finally consolidated around a single LLCC and has developed into TD 10W.

The large cloud area and associated wind field of TD 10W can be seen in the full-disk IR satellite image below.

95W has been struggling under westerly vertical wind shear due to its close proximity to both C33 and C30. The previously elongated C23 has split into a new TUTTc to the west (C32), with C23 remaining to the east.

As C32 slides over Taiwan, its will result in a favorable orientation relative to 10W, so it would be interesting to see whether it enhances the poleward outflow of 10W to support intensification. Current JTWC warning forecasts steady intensification to typhoon intensity by 31/00Z.

C23 was associated with 95W since the very beginning, and it is forecast to remain laterally “coupled” with it through the forecast period.

All is quiet in the EPAC.

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