1100Z – 29 July 2012

In recent days, the WPAC has come alive, with two TCs, multiple TUTTcs, and an upper-level synoptic pattern that is only going to become more complex toward the end of the forecast period! Each currently active TC (and those that are forecast to potentially develop later this week) are (and will be) associated with TUTTc interactions.

95W has become TD 11W, which is forecast to be a straight-runner, remaining to the south of the strong STR that is forecast to remain anchored to the north over Japan.

Meanwhile, TS 10W is gradually intensifying to the east of Luzon. With its unusually large wind field, it is threatening Taiwan with extremely heavy rain and strong winds in the coming 3-5 days.

For perspective, the following MTSAT visible image depicts the large size differential between 10W and 11W.

C32 appears to be slightly enhancing the poleward outflow of 10W. However, the large size of 10W relative to the weak circulation around C32 may render this influence inconsequential. On the other hand, C30 appears to have substantially aided the eastward outflow of 11W.

By TAU 48, C23 is forecast to dissipate to the south of 11W, but another shear-induced TUTTc (C34) will quickly develop ahead of 11W. Its close proximity will likely inhibit the intensification of 11W.

The GFS continues to suggest possible TC genesis resulting from the eastern portion of the circulation of 10W breaking off into another tropical disturbance. Meanwhile, C30 is forecast to re-amplify due east of this new disturbance by TAU 72.

As a total contrast to the WPAC, the EPAC is quiet with regard to both TC and TUTT activity.

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